Hong Kong racing in numbers

The market

The win pool's starting odds against what happened: how far the book is over-round, how often the favourite wins, and how well the odds predict the winner across the price range.

Season by season

SeasonRacesOver-roundFavourite betsFavourite winsFavourite strikeFavourite returnEvery starter
2026/273622.5%381642.1%+27.1%−12.3%
2025/2686522.7%88525528.8%−19.6%−23.8%
2024/2584722.8%86528232.6%−12.2%−27.1%
2023/2483122.8%84724629.0%−18.7%−25.0%
2022/2383522.8%84928033.0%−11.0%−26.0%
2021/2283622.8%86124828.8%−20.7%−21.6%
All seasons4,25022.8%4,3451,32730.5%−16.1%−24.6%

The over-round comes from the odds printed with the results, which are rounded to one decimal. The Club's take on the win pool is 17.5%.

Do the odds know?

Every start grouped by its odds. Implied is the chance the odds suggest once the over-round is taken out; actual is how often those horses won. On the diagonal the market had it right; below the line the horses won less often than their price said.

0.2%0.2%0.5%0.5%1%1%2%2%5%5%10%10%20%20%50%50%100%100%Odds 1–1.5: 121 starts, 92 wins. Implied 65.1%, actual 76.0%, return −4.5%Odds 1.5–2: 385 starts, 178 wins. Implied 47.4%, actual 46.2%, return −21.4%Odds 2–3: 1643 starts, 591 wins. Implied 33.0%, actual 36.0%, return −11.5%Odds 3–4: 2212 starts, 509 wins. Implied 23.7%, actual 23.0%, return −20.9%Odds 4–6: 4842 starts, 863 wins. Implied 16.6%, actual 17.8%, return −12.7%Odds 6–8: 4595 starts, 576 wins. Implied 11.9%, actual 12.5%, return −13.9%Odds 8–10: 4011 starts, 342 wins. Implied 9.2%, actual 8.5%, return −24.1%Odds 10–15: 7662 starts, 499 wins. Implied 7.0%, actual 6.5%, return −23.8%Odds 15–20: 4955 starts, 231 wins. Implied 4.9%, actual 4.7%, return −22.3%Odds 20–30: 5912 starts, 175 wins. Implied 3.4%, actual 3.0%, return −30.1%Odds 30–50: 6078 starts, 134 wins. Implied 2.2%, actual 2.2%, return −17.4%Odds 50–100: 5822 starts, 58 wins. Implied 1.2%, actual 1.0%, return −32.6%Odds 100+: 3357 starts, 9 wins. Implied 0.6%, actual 0.3%, return −61.5%Chance implied by the odds (over-round removed)Actual win rate
Implied chance against actual win rate, both on log scales. Larger dots are larger groups.
OddsStartsWinsImpliedActualActual ÷ impliedReturn
1–1.51219265.1%76.0%1.17−4.5%
1.5–238517847.4%46.2%0.97−21.4%
2–31,64359133.0%36.0%1.09−11.5%
3–42,21250923.7%23.0%0.97−20.9%
4–64,84286316.6%17.8%1.07−12.7%
6–84,59557611.9%12.5%1.06−13.9%
8–104,0113429.2%8.5%0.93−24.1%
10–157,6624997.0%6.5%0.93−23.8%
15–204,9552314.9%4.7%0.95−22.3%
20–305,9121753.4%3.0%0.86−30.1%
30–506,0781342.2%2.2%1.02−17.4%
50–1005,822581.2%1.0%0.82−32.6%
100+3,35790.6%0.3%0.45−61.5%
−50.0%−25.0%+0.0%Odds 1–1.5: return −4.5% over 121 starts1–1.5Odds 1.5–2: return −21.4% over 385 starts1.5–2Odds 2–3: return −11.5% over 1643 starts2–3Odds 3–4: return −20.9% over 2212 starts3–4Odds 4–6: return −12.7% over 4842 starts4–6Odds 6–8: return −13.9% over 4595 starts6–8Odds 8–10: return −24.1% over 4011 starts8–10Odds 10–15: return −23.8% over 7662 starts10–15Odds 15–20: return −22.3% over 4955 starts15–20Odds 20–30: return −30.1% over 5912 starts20–30Odds 30–50: return −17.4% over 6078 starts30–50Odds 50–100: return −32.6% over 5822 starts50–100Odds 100+: return −61.5% over 3357 starts100+Starting odds
Flat $1 on every start in each odds bucket.